Market Commentary

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May 2019 - Month In Review

Further evidence of a slowing global economic picture and geopolitical forces pushed global markets around in May with equities falling 5%-8% and safe haven yields falling across the curve. A surprise POTUS pivot on the U.S.-Sino trade deal on May 6th kicked off the spike in volatility as consensus prior to that was that a trade deal was imminent. Ultimately, heightened U.S.-Sino trade conflict, renewed U.S.-Iranian tensions, Brexit developments, and mounting evidence of slowing global growth all factored into market moving headlines during the month. Calls for rate cuts grew alongside financial market volatility and declining inflation indications. [...]

Market Commentary - June 14th, 2019

Equity markets moved marginally higher last week on relatively light volume while interest rates were flat. We'd categorize last week as a breather after the sharp bounce higher off the June 3rd lows. Investors are looking anxiously at the forward calendar with the upcoming G20 summit (trade) and FOMC meeting (rates). Market oriented headlines last week included a new conflict occurrence in the Persian Gulf and further speculation about Fed rate moves. The economic calendar was fairly light and represented the last few data points for Fed consideration leading into this week's FOMC meeting [...]

Market Commentary - June 7th, 2019

Equity markets rallied, bond yields fell, and the curve became a bit more inverted last week on hopes the Fed may respond to a cooling of global economic growth and risks of rising trade tensions with rate cuts. Declines in the short end of the curve and the USD are reflecting that higher likelihood of rate cuts, bolstering risk assets and non-U.S. assets respectively. [...]

Market Commentary - May 31st, 2019

It was a flight to quality holiday shortened week driven primarily by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade 'negotiations' with global counterparties. Risk markets are coming to terms with the notion that long-established stability and incremental negotiations in international trade policy are no more. Bond yields, U.S. treasury rates, and oil all fell sharply while select emerging market equities, the USD, and gold exhibited some resilience. [...]

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