Market Commentary

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Market Commentary - September 6th, 2019

Temporary relief in both the Brexit and Hong Kong situations and no material change in monetary policy expectations propelled risk markets forward last week despite a mixed bag of economic releases and more running in place on the U.S.-Sino trade front. Equity markets, commodities, and foreign currencies moved higher while treasury bonds took a breather with yields beyond 2 years moving higher. [...]

Market Commentary - August 30th, 2019

Stocks, bonds, commodities, and the U.S. dollar all moved higher last week on the back of a few amicable trade nuggets and the relative condition in the global capital markets. The last three days of August produced a +3% rally in the stock market and it will be interesting to see whether that's a foundation building block or a pedestrian intermittent move given the backdrop. Treasury yields resumed their historic move lower and the yield curve became further (and newly) inverted. [...]

Market Commentary - August 23rd, 2019

Risk markets fell victim to twitter and the trade war on Friday in what had been a fairly encouraging week of monetary policy narratives and strong earnings. Given a fairly light economic calendar, the focus last week fell to the annual Jackson Hole gathering of monetary policy wonks and a batch of encouraging retail earnings reports. Equity markets had posted modest gains for the week until Friday morning when China registered a retaliatory response to the August U.S. tariff announcement. Not to be outdone, the U.S. quickly responded with a reretaliatory tariff and an eyebrow raising executive branch order to private sector corporations. Stocks and commodities moved lower and the 2yr/10yr slope closed in negative territory for the first time in over ten years. [...]

Market Commentary - August 16th, 2019

Deteriorating sentiment related to global growth and a 2yr/10yr yield curve inversion weighed heavily on equity markets and bond yields but things trended more optimistically as the week wore on. Markets shrugged off an announcement (Tues) delaying recently announced 10% tariffs as well as some encouraging U.S. economic releases and remained focused on non-U.S. growth, trade war volleys, plummeting interest rates (curve inversion), and global political concerns. After all was said and done, equity indices finished down 1%-1.5% but U.S. treasury yields continued their steady march lower. [...]

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