Market Commentary

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Market Commentary - April 26th, 2019

Last week brought new record highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ for the first time since last September and a fresh leg down in bond yields. Subdued business and personal spending along with muted inflation data in the Q1 GDP report gave investors confidence that the Fed will remain on the sidelines and drove bond yields lower. Earnings season is in full swing but hasn't inspired markets one way or the other thus far. Last week's economic calendar highlights were the U.S. GDP release, durable goods report, and some housing market data along with several non-U.S. reports. [...]

Market Commentary - April 19th, 2019

Markets were fairly quiet last week with a light economic calendar and holiday shortened trading week. Equity and bond markets were closed Friday in observance of the Easter holiday. U.S. equities and commodities were both down slightly while bond markets moved sideways. With the S&P 500, up 16%, on pace for its best 4 month start in four decades, jobless claims are at their lowest levels since 1969, and a possibly decent Q1 GDP report this week, one may expect Fed narratives to become less dovish  over the coming months. [...]

Market Commentary - April 12th, 2019

It was a relatively uneventful week with GoT, the Masters, and taxes on most people's minds leading into the weekend. However, an encouraging beginning to earnings season, relatively comforting Brexit developments, and positive data points on credit growth quietly led the S&P 500 to a third consecutive week of gains and now less than 1% below its all-time record high. Rates, oil ($63.89) and commodities continued their march higher on a less dire growth consensus looking forward. [...]

Monthly Market Review - March 2019

March followed up the best two-month start for the S&P 500 in 32 years with a bow on top of the best quarter since Q3 2009. Global equity markets were led by the U.S. (1.8%), India (9.2%), and China (2.4%) but overall global equities (0.6%) where tempered due to weakness in Germany (-1.4%), Turkey (-14.9%), and Brazil (-3.8%). Oil moved sharply higher on the back of a strained global production backdrop (Venezuela, Iran, Saudi) while small caps and financials lagged - the latter due primarily to the late-March U.S. yield curve inversion. Politics remained a bit worrisome as U.S.-China trade negotiations continued but with slow progress and scant details while U.K. Brexit plans were again rejected by Parliament with a midApril deadline looming. Global bond markets rallied (yields fell) sharply on renewed central bank dovishness and the overall global growth concerns. [...]

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