Market Commentary

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Market Commentary - November 8th, 2019

U.S. equity markets checked in at record highs last week while yields moved higher and steepened the curve. U.S. and Chinese indications that the ‘Phase 1’ trade deal remains on track was enough to lift equity markets to a fifth consecutive weekly gain. Mixed messaging as to whether some of the existing tariffs will be rolled back was taken in stride by markets as a negotiating tactic. The market rotation from defensive to cyclical areas of the market continued as value-oriented strategies have begun to show signs of life. [...]

Market Commentary - November 1st, 2019

Better than expected corporate earnings, a strong October jobs report, and more constructive trade narratives pushed equity markets to multiple new highs last week. Last week was peak for 3Q earnings season and companies did not disappoint with beat rates overall trending at 70%. Interest rates fell across the curve and the slope shifted more notably into positive territory while the USD weakened across most major currencies. [...]

Monthly Commentary - October 2019

We entered October with ‘huge’ trade dispute concerns, ISM numbers at GFC levels, over 50% probability of two Fed rate cuts before year end, and tangible pessimism in both earnings and sentiment. We exited October with the market breaking out to new record highs, one courtesy rate cut, firming fundamentals, and the global economy seemingly on a low but stable path forward. The combination of healthy financial conditions (rates, spreads, equity markets, liquidity) and a tangible reduction in geopolitical risks (Brexit, Trade) set the stage for risk markets finding their footing. The outlook remains relatively constructive while policy stimulus continues to work its way into the global economy. [...]

Quarterly Market Update - Q3 2019

The three Ts dominated market psychology in the third quarter: Trade, Tariffs, and Treasuries. After strong performance results for both stocks and bonds during the first half of the year, global economies appeared to be inching closer to recession in August, primarily due to escalating trade conflicts with China. Several political and economic forces, coupled with structural market dynamics eventually led to a more constructive result as the quarter came to a close. Ultimately, policy accommodation from global central banks helped push stubborn risk markets to modest gains on the quarter. Remarkably, over 30 central banks have reduced interest rates in 2019. [...]

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